PV sector to continue strong growth, IMS Research shows

Two recent studies by IMS Research reveal strong growth, but falling prices, in the photovoltaic (PV) sector.

Microinverters and power optimisers continue to be the fastest growing segment of the PV inverter market, growing by 180% in 2011. IMS forecasts shipments of these disruptive technologies to grow by more than 70% in 2012, reaching nearly 900 MW.

IMS’s report, The World Market for Microinverters & Power Optimizers, shows that Australia is one of the five most attractive markets for microinverters and power optimisers, along with the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Japan. These five markets are predicted to continue to support a healthy residential and small commercial segment, be more accepting of new technologies (compared to some European countries) and not enforce restrictive grid codes that may prevent microinverters or optimisers from being deployed.

Global PV inverter shipments are set to reach a record 8.6 GW at the end of 2012, IMS has also predicted, with Q4 2012 set to be the largest final quarter ever recorded.

According to the World Market for PV Inverters report, double-digit sequential growth will be largely driven by Asian countries such as China, India and Japan, with Asia accounting for almost 50% of global shipments in the fourth quarter. In contrast, shipments to mature markets in Europe, such as Italy and Germany, are forecast to decline by 20% in Q4 due to aggressive feed-in tariff (FiT) cuts.

IMS Research’s analysis of shipment data collected from leading suppliers found that the first half of 2012 began strongly with over 16 GW of global shipments. However, despite strong shipments, the average price of PV inverters had fallen by almost 20% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2012.

“Following huge amounts of price pressure on other PV components such as modules, PV inverter prices have also come under fire,” said Cormac Gilligan, PV market analyst at IMS Research. “Highly competitive market conditions, falling incentives and weakening demand in key markets has resulted in prices declining by an average of 5% per quarter for the last year.”

IMS predicts China will overtake Germany as the largest market for PV inverters in 2013 as FiT amendments start to take effect and China continues to rapidly deploy utility-scale systems. The US is predicted to become the third largest market for PV inverters, highlighting the global shift from the mature European markets to the fast-growing Americas and Asia regions.