California needs aggressive efficiency and electrification to cut emissions, report says

California’s population is expected to increase from 37m to 55m, in the next 40 years, and the demand for energy is expected to double. By executive order, California needs to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Scientists from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) believe the target is achievable through aggressive efficiency and electrification.

However, the state will need  a very different electricity system that is better able to balance supply and demand while integrating more renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, which are intermittent, according to the report. “The grid as it currently stands is entirely unsustainable,” said Berkeley Lab researcher Jeff Greenblatt. “We’re going to see a very different grid in 2050 than we have now.”

The report titled ‘California’s Energy Future - The View to 2050’ draws a series of energy system ‘portraits’ showing how California can meet its ambitious emissions targets using a combination of measures and energy sources that may include electrification, enhanced efficiency, nuclear energy, renewable energy sources, grid modernisation, and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS).

The first 60% in emissions reductions can be realised with currently available technology and the remaining 20% reduction will have to come from advancements in several technologies still in development, which may include artificial photosynthesis, fusion energy, more efficient and sustainable biofuels and hydrogen fuel amongst others, according to the report. If no measures are taken, emissions will likely double by 2050 relative to 1990 levels. With efficiency alone, emissions could be held to 20% over 1990 levels.

“We need either more storage on the grid - whether with batteries or compressed air or something else - or a very intelligent system that’s able to respond to what’s available. For example, since the wind tends to blow more at night, a smarter system would heat your water at night when you have the power and store that water, and not in the morning when everybody wants to take a shower,” explained Jim McMahon, head of the Energy Analysis Department in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division.

Reducing emissions will require efforts on both the supply and demand side of the energy equation. Faster development of California’s diverse array of renewable energy resources - wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, hydro and offshore marine energy - will be needed to ensure an adequate supply of clean electricity, the report says. The scientists calculated that wind power, for example, would have to grow at 7.5% annually and solar at 12% annually. The report also considered the impact on land use from scaling up such operations; it estimated that 1.3 % of the state’s land area would have to be devoted exclusively to renewables.

On the demand side, the report recommends aggressive efficiency measures, such as retrofitting 1.8% of all buildings every year starting now. “Cars and appliances last a long time, 15 to 20 years, and power plants and buildings even longer - 50 years or more. That’s why we can’t wait. We don’t want to lock in inefficient things,” said McMahon. The report recommends simultaneously electrifying as much as possible by switching from fuels such as natural gas or petroleum to electricity. Uses that can be electrified include space heating, water heating, vehicles, domestic cooking, and bus and rail fleets.

To read the full report, visit http://ccst.us/publications/2011/2011energy.php.