Are you ready for digital disruption?

Digital disruption has only just begun and massive changes are underway for the customer cabling industry. How will the disruptive technologies impact the the industry, and how can you best prepare yourself for the era of disruption? Read on to find out.

It’s predicted that around 80% of Fortune 1000 companies will not exist in 10–15 years. This trend is expected to be seen across all industry sectors. In this article, we will explore the key disruptive technologies, how they will impact the customer cabling industry, when they will impact us, industry trends, opportunities, challenges and suggestions to help you prepare yourself for digital disruption.

What is a disruptive technology?

A disruptive technology is a technology that displaces an established technology and shakes up the industry. We have already experienced this a number of times in the last 20 years. Some quick examples include: records — tape cassettes — CD — MPEG players; digital cameras; smartphones; video tapes — DVD — IP streaming; storage density; computing; social media; typesetting/printing presses — laser printers. And the list goes on and on. What needs to be understood is that the pace of disruption is accelerating. It is suggested that the volume of disruption expected in the next 10–15 years will exceed the volume of disruption since the industrial revolution.

So what is driving the digital revolution? The answer is computing power. Today, a PlayStation has 170 times the computational power of a 1987 Super Computer. In 18 years, the device size has shrunk massively. Most people aren’t truly aware of the speed of change and disruption.

So what type of disruptive technologies can we expect in the next 10–15 years? The Gartner hype cycle provides an indication of what technologies will come to maturity, and when they should impact us. This hype cycle doesn’t cover battery technologies, renewable technologies, nanotech or new materials.

Opportunities

The key disruptive technologies that are expected to impact the customer cabling industry are: Internet of Things; mobile health monitoring; cloud computing; consumer telematics; autonomous vehicles; mobile robots and computing power. These technologies will also create significant opportunities for the information and communications and technology industry, as we will need to design and build:

• Infrastructure-to-car wireless sites — It is expected that all traffic-lighted intersections and overpasses/bridges will need a 5.9 GHz WLAN AP that will be used to communicate to autonomous vehicles.
• Residential customer cabling — 10 million homes will need customer cabling, closets and networks, as noted by the BICSI-SP Digital Homes program. In a decade from now, the level of technology and connectivity in a home will increase a hundredfold. This is another article in itself.
• Internet of Things will lead to the integration of CCTV, security, BMS, audiovisual technologies, lighting control, automation and sensors, video, voice and data, etc on to a single network platform, utilising a single network protocol (ie, IPv6). This will provide opportunities for Registered Cablers to upskill to ‘Registered Systems Integrators’.

The above-listed disruptions will lead to changes across the industry. Roles such as security system installers/integrators, audiovisual installers/integrators, home-automation installers/integrators, data cablers etc, will all merge. Disparate technology silos will merge, so will installer/integrator jobs merge. The technology will become easier to deploy and interoperable; hardware and software will be independent; and it will become more ubiquitous.

Risks

The two key disruption risks for customer cabling are: robotics and computer processing capability.

Robotics — The engineers of the world are moving quickly to develop a bipedal autonomous robot. Robots will take on a ‘human-like’ form because we will need these robots to operate in the same environment that we work and live in. It will be too expensive for us to alter our built environments for robots to operate in. Robots could offer the following benefits: operate 24/7; operate in hazardous environments; deliver a higher quality of work constantly (no short-cutting); stronger, durable; fewer errors than humans; a doubling in capability every 12 months; quadrupled capability every two years; expected to cost $30,000 per robot. At job sites, robots will initially take on all the laborious tasks, then two years later they’ll be capable of doing semi-skilled work. And two years after that, trade-related tasks, then semi-professional tasks, etc. The question is — when is this disruption expected to commence? The answer is 2025–2030. By 2030, almost every household will own a robot.

Computer processing capability — Not many may be aware but there are computers that dream; conduct medical diagnosis, in actual hospitals and clinics; and perform a number of other human tasks. What does this mean? We are developing computers that can problem solve, interact with the real world, design solutions, innovate, learn. Within 10 years, they will be able to do what you can do. On top of that, they will double in capability each year. I expect to be out of a job by 2030. It is expected that hardware capability will meet, and eventually exceed, wetware capability.

Impact on workforce

What will happen if and when we combine computer processing capability, robotics and big data with quantum computing, Internet of Things and nanotechnology? From a workforce point of view, it’s a terrifying thought. The industry faces a similar level of threat faced by farmers when the industrial revolution hit agriculture.

While there are threats from disruption, there will also be opportunities. However, to seize opportunities, industry professionals will have to be prepared for change — they will have to undergo training and provide themselves with the tools and skills that will allow them to react rapidly to change and take advantage of opportunities.

There’ll be some new industries and opportunities that’ll be created post-2020. These include: ITS (intelligent transport systems), nbn (II) and the residential market. As a small saving grace, it has been indicated that home owners have a preference for a human workforce and human interaction in the (residential) sector.

But what has also been indicated is that the traditional Registered Cabler roles will not exist in the 2020s. Jobs will evolve and they will evolve faster than expected — competencies will have to adopt and change.

There will be more jobs than people (ie, trained Registered Cablers). But there is also no appetite to de-skill the Registered Cablers scheme to open it up to a larger, skill-diluted workforce. The economic and safety risks are far too high. We all remember what happened during the home insulation program. Also, allied industries will be displaced by the merging of technologies. There will be significant challenges.

Projects may be delayed but work may eventually ramp up as the technology to deliver those works ramps up. The need for a constant workforce will decrease post-2030.

How to prepare

The question that you need to honestly ask yourselves is, do I want to be in this business/industry for another 15 years? If the answer is no, do nothing.

But if the answer is yes, you will need to upskill. You will need to move from being just a Registered Cabler to a Registered Systems Integrator and you have about five years to plan, manage and undergo this transition. The skill set that I would expect a Registered Systems Integrator to have is as follows: Registered Cabler; involved in a regular program of continuing development and education; certified designer of customer cabling systems; certified radio systems training; certified IoT training — security devices, cameras, home automation, audiovisual, etc; certified LAN networking; certified project management training; certified business training.

The skill set will expand. As the industries and technologies will merge, businesses and home owners will use a more skilled ‘ICT and ICT Infrastructure’ contractor. Furthermore, the ratio of larger commercial/industrial/government ICT infrastructure projects compared to smaller ICT and ICT infrastructure projects will change significantly. The need for a Registered Cabler, who only performs cabling work and hands over the job to an integrator, is over.

What is stopping an integrator employing a robot to install the cable? I expect that this will be the norm post-2030. Clients with small projects will expect a leaner, flatter delivery team. These types of projects will not support the ‘traditional’ multitechnology tiered delivery solution.

This is what disruption will look like. In the next five years, you need to use your time to plan, manage, change and evolve. Those that do nothing will miss out. They will become a number, which will be part of the statistic of businesses that failed due to disruption. So please heed this warning and plan now for tomorrow.

*Lawrence McKenna is the Telecommunications Section Manager at Wood & Grieve Engineers, and is also the Deputy Chair – Engineers Australia VicITEE, and Director – BICSI South Pacific. Lawrence is a highly qualified Specialist Telecommunications and ICT Engineer with over 25 years of industry experience. Lawrence’s career started with Queensland Rail as a radio apprentice. His experience includes voice networking (incl. PABXs, regional-wide networks), telecommunication and transmission networks (optical fibre and microwave radio), structured cabling designs, WAN/CANs, LANs, audiovisual systems, security systems and various radio communication systems. Lawrence is a member of the Standards Australia (Standards development) CT-001 (Communications Cabling), CT-002 (Broadcasting and related services), the ITU-T SG5 working group and the ITU-R ARSG-5 working group.

Image credit: iStock/Vladislav Ociacia