Autonomous vehicles — are we really ready?

The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), a leading advisor on business strategy, has released a comprehensive report on the future of autonomous vehicles. According to BCG, it's no longer a matter of if, but when, they will hit the road. The ramifications are far-reaching and a number of societal, legal and regulatory issues will be raised as these vehicles come to market.

Everyone's doing it — Audi, BMW, Daimler, Tesla, GM and Volvo have all dipped their metaphorical toes in the water, with each manufacturer in the advanced stages of the development and testing of autonomous vehicles. In addition, companies such as Bosch, Continental, Delphi Automotive, Mobileye, Valeo, Velodyne and NVIDIA are making significant headway in testing the positioning, guidance and processing technology required to make these vehicles function, according to BCG. It's generally accepted that the technology will be widely rolled out as early as 2016, with several makers planning to include partially autonomous features in upcoming releases.

As drivers, we've become used to the assistive features now commonly provided in vehicles: adaptive cruise control, park assist, automatic emergency braking and lane-keeping technology; but the move is on towards less and less direct driver involvement. BCG suggests that highway autopilot (single-lane and lane-changing capable), traffic jam autopilot, autonomous parking (including identification, self-parking and retrieval) and urban autopilot are all on the verge of becoming mainstream and the report is extensive in its examination of release timing, customer preferences, the impact on insurance and the likely adoption rates.

Of particular interest, however, is the regulatory and policy side of things. So far, the development and testing of this type of technology has been accelerated via the use of special permits and legislation, but full commercial adoption will require regulators to address a number of points including:

• Traffic regulation — will autonomous vehicles be permitted on roadways if a human is not at least partially responsible for operation?
• Liability — where does the onus lie in the event of a traffic accident or vehicle malfunction?
• Standards — what standards and testing procedures need to be defined to ensure safety and cybersecurity?

These issues will be covered in a forthcoming report from BCG that has been developed in collaboration with the World Economic Forum. Countries and regions including Japan, South Korea, China and Western Europe are already considering the aspects outlined above, but the United States has the most developed policy, particularly in the arena of traffic regulation, where five states have already enacted laws allowing the use of these vehicles.

BSC suggests that risk-limiting measures for manufacturers are a key consideration, which could include capping liability exposure if they comply with government-endorsed performance standards. Additionally, a number of stakeholders will be negatively impacted through the introduction of autonomous vehicles: taxi drivers, truck drivers, insurers and personal injury litigators, so it is expected that these groups will exert significant pressure to protect their interests.

One thing is certain — it will be a long road. While the technology may be imminent, it may take the rest of society a while to catch up with the development. Interesting times ahead.

Visit the BSG website for a copy of the full report - it's worth the read.

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