Going green still a dream

Researchers at Queensland University of Technology are predicting that petrol-powered vehicles will continue to dominate Australian roads in the year 2030, despite advances in cleaner technologies and public concerns about the environment.

The team surveyed academics, industry leaders and members of government in Australia, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia to gauge attitudes across Asia–Pacific. The lead researcher on the project was Associate Professor Robert Perrons of the university’s Institute for Future Environments.

Perrons said the findings indicated that petrol power will continue to dominate, with these vehicles making up just under 35% of total vehicles on the road in 2030. However, hybrid vehicles will most likely surge significantly.

“The big change will be the prevalence of hybrid vehicles, which experts forecast will increase from 3.8% of the market share to 24.2%.

“Coming in third place will be battery power, which increases from 0.3% of the market in 2016 to 15.9% in 2030," he said.

Perrons also said diesel was tipped to to lose considerable market share, dropping to 15.2% by 2030.

“The increase in reliance on greener fuels is similarly reflected in the Asia–Pacific region with Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia also tipped to see a significant increase in hybrid-powered vehicles.

“Diesel vehicles are predicted to maintain a dominant market share in Thailand in the next few years, but hybrid battery-based technologies are expected to make significant inroads into the local market by 2030.

As part of the study, experts were also asked to predict the future costs of different models of vehicles.

“Generally speaking, across the four countries there was consensus that hybrid vehicles would become more cost-effective, either reducing in price or not increasing as much as other vehicles that use petrol or diesel.

“For example, by 2030, Australian experts strongly believe that the purchase price of most vehicles will remain relatively stable to today’s prices among petrol, diesel and LPG vehicle options. The exceptions are the battery, hybrid and biofuel vehicles, which are expected to see a price decrease of between 11 and 25% compared to 2016 prices.

“The other good news is that Australian experts predict that a rise in efficiency will be seen across all vehicle fuel types, most notably in the battery electric-powered vehicles, which are estimated to see efficiency gains of 51% or more.”

Jointly supported by the AutoCRC (now known as Excellerate Australia), the Malaysia Automotive Institute and QUT, the goal of the project is to improve the collective understanding of changes unfolding in the vehicle and mobility marketplace throughout the Asia–Pacific region and to interpret what they mean for the future of transportation in that part of the world.

The QUT team of researchers is led by Professor Simon Washington, Associate Professor Robert Perrons, Professor Lionel Page and Dr Zuduo Zheng.